LEASE SCENARIO ANALYSIS

206 Claire Way • Oak Grove, KY 42262
Class A Retail • Christian County
PROPERTY OVERVIEW
9,516
Total GLA (SF)
2,104
Available Suite (SF)
2017
Year Built
0.94
Acres
22,800+
VPD Ft. Campbell Blvd
30
Parking Spaces
225'
Road Frontage
22.1%
Pro-Rata Share
NNN EXPENSE BREAKDOWN

Pro-rata share: 2,104 SF of 9,516 SF (22.1%)

Expense Annual (Bldg) Pro-Rata (22.1%) Per SF Monthly
Property Taxes $10,930 $2,415 $1.15 $201
Insurance + Other $6,000 $1,326 $0.63 $111
Total NNN $16,930 $3,741 $1.78 $312
Note: Insurance and other operating expenses confirmed at $6,000/yr by property owner (P & M Holdings LLC). Total NNN pass-throughs: $1.78/SF ($312/mo pro-rata for 2,104 SF suite). Tax figure based on 2025 Christian County assessment.
SCENARIO A — TRIPLE NET (NNN)
Recommended
$21.00/SF
Base Rent — NNN
Base Rent (2,104 SF × $21.00) $44,184/yr
Monthly Base Rent $3,682/mo
+ Pro-Rata Taxes $201/mo
+ Insurance + Other $111/mo
Tenant Total (All-In) $3,994/mo ($22.78/SF)

LANDLORD BENEFIT

All operating expenses passed through to tenant. Landlord retains full $3,682/mo net. Protects against rising taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. Consistent with CoStar estimated rent range of $20–$24/SF.
SCENARIO B — GROSS LEASE (ALL-IN)
Alternative
$22.78/SF
Gross Rent — All Expenses Included
Gross Rent (2,104 SF × $22.78) $47,929/yr
Monthly Gross Rent $3,994/mo
— Taxes Absorbed by Landlord -$201/mo
— Insurance + Other Absorbed -$111/mo
Landlord Net $3,682/mo

TENANT APPEAL

Simpler for tenants — one predictable monthly payment with no variable NNN charges. May attract smaller tenants who prefer budget certainty. Landlord assumes risk of operating expense increases.
SCENARIO C — MODIFIED GROSS (REDUCED BASE)
Negotiation Scenario
$15.12/SF
Base Rent + NNN Pass-Through
Base Rent (2,104 SF × $15.12) $31,800/yr
Monthly Base Rent $2,650/mo
+ Pro-Rata Taxes $201/mo
+ Insurance + Other $111/mo
Tenant Total $2,962/mo
Effective Rate $16.90/SF

NEGOTIATION CONTEXT

Reduces tenant all-in cost by ~$1,032/mo vs. Scenario A. Landlord nets only $15.12/SF — comparable to the 2017-2018 Crye-Leike lease rate of $15-$16/SF NNN. Represents a significant concession. Consider only if vacancy extends beyond 6+ months.
SCENARIO COMPARISON
Metric A: NNN B: Gross C: Modified
Base Rent/SF $21.00 $22.78 $15.12
NNN Pass-Through/Mo $312 $0 (included) $312
Tenant Monthly Cost $3,994 $3,994 $2,962
Tenant Annual Cost $47,928 $47,929 $35,544
Landlord Net/Mo $3,682 $3,682 $2,650
Landlord Net/Year $44,184 $44,184 $31,800
Effective Rate (All-In) $22.78/SF $22.78/SF $16.90/SF
Expense Risk Tenant Landlord Split
vs. Submarket Avg +$4.32/SF +$6.10/SF -$1.56/SF

All figures reflect confirmed operating expenses ($10,930 taxes + $6,000 insurance/other = $16,930/yr).
Submarket average: $16.68/SF (Christian County 2-4 Star Retail, CoStar Q1 2026)

MARKET CONTEXT
0%
Property Vacancy
4.2%
Submarket Vacancy
3.5%
Market Vacancy
Subject Asking Rent $21.00/SF
CoStar Estimated Rent Range $20.00 – $24.00/SF
Submarket 2-4 Star Average $16.68/SF
Market Overall Average $18.78/SF
Market Sale Price/SF $129/SF
Market Cap Rate 9.4%
3-Mile Population 32,625
3-Mile Households 9,554
Median HH Income (3 mi) $51,695
Population Growth '24–'29 +6.82%
Household Growth '24–'29 +7.46%
Ft. Campbell Blvd VPD 22,832
LISTING RECOMMENDATION

PRIMARY STRATEGY

List at $21.00/SF NNN (Scenario A)

The asking rate of $21.00/SF is well-supported by CoStar's estimated rent range of $20–$24/SF and represents a 26% premium over the submarket average — justified by the 2017 Class A construction, Fort Campbell proximity, 22,800+ VPD traffic counts, and strong demographic growth projections. NNN structure protects the landlord from operating expense escalation while keeping the base rent transparent for tenant negotiations.

Negotiation Floor: $18.00/SF NNN ($3,154/mo)
Walk-Away Point: Below $16.68/SF (submarket average)
Action Items:
1. Confirm street name (Claire Way vs. Claire Ave) for MLS accuracy
2. Update Lone Wolf transaction to reflect $21.00/SF NNN on 2,104 SF ($3,682/mo base)
3. NNN pass-throughs confirmed: $1.78/SF ($312/mo) — Taxes $10,930 + Insurance/Other $6,000
Lease Scenario Analysis — 206 Claire Way
James Church
Commercial Realtor® | CCIM Candidate
Keller Williams Commercial
TN #367369 | KY #292357
C: 707.592.2777
Email: james.church@kwcommercial.com
Analysis prepared February 26, 2026 | Data sources: CoStar, Christian County PVA, KYTC TrafficMetrix
This analysis is for informational purposes only. All figures should be independently verified.